Ready to Buy Now? The Market's Calming Down

The Housing Market Isn’t Crashing - It’s Normalizing!

Ask most people how they feel about the housing market and you’ll hear the same uneasy refrain: mortgage rates are brutal, prices feel out of reach, and a crash must be right around the corner. A recent Fannie Mae survey even showed that most Americans think it’s a bad time to buy.

But the data tells a different story. Under the pessimism, the housing market has been quietly working through the extremes of the pandemic era and the usual ingredients that fuel a true crash simply aren’t showing up.

Why the “Crash” Narrative Doesn’t Hold Up

The past few years have been messy. The pandemic supercharged demand and sent prices soaring. Then interest rates jumped and affordability took a hit. It’s completely reasonable for people to assume the next phase has to be a downturn.

But housing doesn’t move on headlines or feelings. The housing market moves on supply and demand. When you zoom in on the fundamental data, the picture points to a healthier housing market.

The Housing Shortage Is Still Real

The U.S. still doesn’t have enough homes. Zillow estimates the country is short roughly 4.7 million housing units.  That's not a small gap, but a multi-year deficit.

Yes, a few fast-growing markets have seen pockets of temporary oversupply. But at the national level, the shortage remains the dominant force. And persistent shortages don’t usually lead to crashes.

Inventory Is Rising In a Healthy Way

During the pandemic, active listings collapsed to record lows. That created an extreme seller’s market that was never going to last forever.

Since then, inventory has been building back to normal levels, but doing so gradually. This matters. Before major downturns, inventory typically spikes quickly as sellers flood the market and buyers disappear. That’s not what we’re seeing. Even with the improvement, available homes are still low relative to today’s population and housing demand.

Months’ Supply Signals a Return to Balance

A simple way to measure market tightness is months’ supply, which estimates how long it would take to sell all current listings at today’s sales pace.

• At the height of the frenzy, months’ supply fell to around 1.6 months.
• More recently, it has climbed to around 4.6 months.

These numbers are not an indication of a collapse.  It is an indication of normalization. Historically, a balanced market often hovers around 5 to 6 months of supply. So what we’re seeing looks less like a breakdown and more like a return to a more balanced market.

Buyers Are Coming Back

Another sign the market is stabilizing is buyer activity. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s Purchase Index (which tracks mortgage applications for home purchases) plunged when rates spiked but it’s been steadily rebounding toward prior-year levels.

In plain English: buyers are re-entering the market.

What This Means For 2026

The belief that the housing market is on the verge of collapse doesn’t align with the fundamental data. Supply is still constrained nationally, demand is recovering and activity is improving in a way that looks more like a thaw than a crash.

All markets are not the same and affordability can be a challenge in some markets.  Some housing markets will behave differently than the national averages. But the “imminent crash” storyline for 2026 is out of sync with what the data is actually showing.

The housing market isn’t crashing. It’s finding its balance again.